1. Transportation companies are at all times high 2. Goldman’s emerging market picks: Taiwan, Turkey, India as they benefit from low oil. India really looks good, Turkey and Taiwan a bit dangerous for various reasons 3. Russia/China cooperation gets stronger. Will add direct oil/gas sales, gold and USD swaps between countries. …. [Will add effects …
Natural gas and oil
The oil falling 50% poses several questions. We speculate that (brent) oil is posed to break 45$ support sometimes in Feb and stay there for 3 months before going up to 80$ in December. The supporting information is not strong enough yet to support this speculation, so we do not bring it here. What we …
S&P target value
Current highs and lows starting form a long-term trend. Current S&P trend will stop around 2350, but it will be a bumpy (volatile) ride till we get there. Here is a technical analysis.
Japan ETF
Assuming that Abenomics is successful, Japan due to rebounce this year. Focus on high liquidity ETFs that are at least 3 years old and have positive 3 years returns EWJ iShares MSCI Japan ETF -1.16% -2.33% -1.16% -6.41% +28.08% +18.34% DXJ Japan Hedged Equity Fund -1.83% -10.52% -1.83% -1.31% +63.29% +30.51% NKY MAXIS Nikkei 225 …
Europe stocks will rebounce this year
Europe stocks are now oversold. Since European QE is coming any time soon, it might be great to start buying European indices. We had a similar situation back 4 years ago. Interesting candidates based on revenue and liquidity: Symbol Name 1 Week 4 Week YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year ▼ DFE Europe SmallCap …
S&P correlations
S&P correlates to several indicators which are interconnected. 1. US economic index since the companies are American 2. The USEI is partially driven by Fed (FOMC) 3. The S&P correlates to USD power and USD/Yen ratio (via carry trade and buyback) The relationship between S&P and Russel2000 is more complex, even though Russel 2000 caught …
Trading vs investment
This post is more “we believe” than something backed up by numbers. It is easier to make money if trading is limited, however the temptation is too high to give up trending altogether. Trading potentially offers higher returns, but it is very high risk endeavor. It is better if swing or day trading is a …
Volatility and stock returns
Effect of volatility on S&P returns or maybe viceversa due to contango…. I wonder if volatility is leading or lagging indicator…
ETF resources
ETF DB screener Index families Alternative ETFs summary ETF by performance
Sector-by-sector analysis January
Sector by sector mention The conclusions are questionable but the idea of personalized per-sector rebalancing is kind of cool.