Most indexes are biased to the large-cap assets. Each month some assets perform better than others. Sector rotation model assumes that from every index we invest say 60%-80% into leading industries and 20%-40% into lagging industry, where within each sector we weight the assets equally [independent of cap]. The rebalancing can probably be performed each …
Benefit of monthly rebalancing
This article recommends monthly asset reallocation with 10-20 weeks lookback. The methods was used for relatively slow indices during profoundly bull market. Probably the allocation frequency depends on market volatility, but should happen at least once a month for most markets. Moreover, the same author mentions that it is best to reallocate at the end …
Never user market orders
This article explains why market orders are bad when low liquidity asset or large order.
Systemic risk report
We got unusually detailed high systemic risk report. It appears as the US market has become overly complacent. While market corrections occur every 3 years on average, we may be heading into a dangerous territory in US. Due to high systemic risk, larger than usual diversification may be advised, with higher than usual cache allocation …
Trend analysis
Charting and trend analysis is very similar to astrology. There are woo many signals to decide anything. This blog offers a reasonable ~daily market analysis that supplements our fundamental understandings and offers new insight. The charts often give wrong signals, so be careful when charting.
Gold status
Unlike the status of oil, which is pretty clear right now, the status of gold is more complex. Gold demand is governed by exchange rate uncertainty and monetary inflation. We see conflicting trends of uncertainty and deflation, with rapidly changing monetary policies, which causes unpredictable results. We have seen a rally fueled almost entirely by …
World-wide deflation
We are probably witnessing the biggest word-wide deflation after the big depression of 30s. This article explains how US QE excess liquidity could cause such worldwide deflation. Will be interesting to see if ECB QE and Abenomics can handle it, and how the Chinese government will regulate overproduction and speculative bubbles resulting.
Integrated libraries
We are starting to integrate tools into the backend. table editor pecl trader extension pchart
Buying options vs buying etf
The USO structure shows that buying ETF not necessarily reflects option prices due to contango. There is more than one ETF per asset, but liquidity may be more important than performance in some cases. Occasionally it is useful to buy mining companies/EFT/MLP instead of buying the commodities. The mining companies typically have much higher volatility. …
Fighting drawdown via aggressive timing
Our main portfolio should be by default diversified and low volatility, basically buy-and-hold type. However we may get long drawdown periods in the main portfolio. To fight the drawdown we use further diversification into yet more markets and cache assets. However all assets are correlated to some extent. To fight this correlation we can use …