This great article shows the current commodities supercycle. Commodities are generally moving in a very wide “channel” supported by inflation with roughly 25 years cycle. The current cycle should be modified by 2008 crisis results for better understanding. It appears that the overall commodities prices are falling right now, as explained by the supercycle theory. …
Dow vs Russel divergence
Usually Dow and Russel are highly correlated, but for the last year this is not so. This article shows some reason for it. We have made the argument here before that, in addition to being fairly valued by pretty much any historical metric, U.S. large-cap stocks face significant headwinds courtesy of the strong dollar. We …
30-Y bond prices
The 30 years T bond prices have been very good in 2014. In fact this article notices triple top structure in bond pattern. This means that TLT and EDV ETFs have become dangerous…
Stop losses
This article recommends to issue put options for the assets (commodities) we invest in, as protection against market changes. In a similar way one may invest in stock market and volatility. Either one or the other will go up… If timed properly (buy low sell high) this method may work. Occasionally (very rare) market and …
Lifehacker suggests these tools
These tools were suggested by lifehacker. Please check them for us and write your feedbacks.
Picking stocks
The best way to pick stocks is using screener of undervalued stocks. Unfortunately, screener access costs around 400USD per year. We will try to recreate the tools for free. This article describes a decent method for choosing large cap stocks, and here mid cap are addressed. And these stocks are probably too risky right now. …
Investment tactics – overview
We believe in statistical analysis and modern portfolio management. Rather then placing few well-picked bets, we distribute our bets to improve returns and reduce drawdown and risk of ruin. Our investment tactics is focused on monthly rebalancing core account. Within the core account, fixed allocation per asset class (adjusted based on rare macro events). The …
National economies
This page holds several international indicators. Very good to see gold reserves, debt to gdp, growth rate etc. This page holds similar data.
De-dollarization in Russia
New data shows that massive spike in gold prices was caused by Russia buying more gold than ever as explained here and visible here
Market health simple indicators
This page includes simple market health indicators for US, India, Japan, REIT, MLP. Should be checked once per month when rebalancing momentum/sector rotation/equity-bonds allocations. For example, the price-to-book indicator is very interesting – since it is a proxy for the liquidation stock price. Investor fears are abundant, should be acknowledged but not overused.