The market has been extremely boring and sideways-moving recently. There is a weekly forecast suggesting market correction. I am skeptical, but the future remains to be seen…
Fixed vs flexible amount
Since we earn money each month, it is extremely tempting to increase the investment amount monthly. Probably this should be done until a minimal qualifying investment amount (maybe 50,000 USD or 150,000 USD) is reached. The benefits of flexible amounts are clear: 1. Ability to use new opportunities each month 2. Natural growth of the …
Weekly forecast
This weekly forecast is a bit strange. Occasionally economical data makes no sense: good news cause sell-offs, sectors loved for safety underperform, low recession chance coincides with bear signals. It seams that occasionally semantic algorithms overtrade [using probability of rate hikes] based on keywords they recognize in the news – this could be a good …
Long term predictions
While trend following is good for mid-term investment, fundamental analysis enables some long-term predictions. 1. The power of demographics. Young people generate inflation and growth, aging population is causing deflation and stagnation. By following nations’ demographic it is possible to predict roughly the long term growth trajectory. 2. Diffusion. In healthy economy there is diffusion …
Is there a good reason to invest worldwide?
This article shows that US accounts for 52% of total world stocks. With Japan at 7%, UK at 7% and EU at 7% trailing behind. Investing in any non-US market is of higher risk, especially monetary risk, but also growth of developed markets and market manipulation risks come to mind. With highly differentiated monetary politics, …
Continue reading “Is there a good reason to invest worldwide?”
Weekly US market
This institute provides a leading index on US economy based on some macro measurement. This article describes how to use the leading weekly index to anticipate US economy movement.
Trading volatility
Volatility futures are typically in contango (S&P bull market) with some backwardation periods (S&P bear market). There is a reason to trade long volatility on market peaks when (a) there is no QE in US and (b) when the contango is relatively flat, and inverse volatility on market corrections otherwize. Flat volatility contango is also …
Largest companies in the world
Today’s biggest companies are small when compared to dinosaurs 300 years ago, and the wealth is more evenly distributed. This report is a summary of largest companies world-wide. The top 10 are Notice that the list of largest companies by revenue is quite different Key highlights • Three industries show significant upward trends: Industrials (+153%), …
World markets
This post considers worlds markets performance within a long timeframe. The markets signal rotation. SENSEX is as strong as ever, but Chinese indices are under pressure and European indices are rising. S&P and Nikkei are relatively neutral. Strong volatility everywhere. Maybe volatility will subside when Greece politics and Crude price get balanced.
Gold pros and cons
This article argues that global debts rising faster than GDP will cause defaults sooner or later. So while we are in deflationary zone, and some analysts see gold heading below 1230 towards 800, there is a monetary risk we should start hedging against.