Spot opportunities for personal investment
The U.S. dollar has always been a keystone player in international trade and a vehicle of economic authority. However, several years back, publications and experts started addressing a common issue: the devaluation of the dollar. For people in the street, investors, or policymakers is an evasive financial term that is, in reality, a burning issue …
Continue reading “What Causes the U.S. Dollar to Lose Value?”
Currency war is a worldwide financial trend where nations lower their currencies intentionally to take advantage of the trade. In the beginning, people may think that a strong currency is a symbol of economic prosperity and security. Nevertheless, in the global trade and international finance sectors, a dollar that is too strong can be a …
Is the stock market overvalued? The question always arises whenever the market falls or valuations reach historical peaks. By early 2025, U.S. share markets are showing evidence of re-establishment after an AI-driven large-cap tech rally in late 2024. Many of the stocks have undergone significant price decreases within the last few months, which has contributed …
The market has been extremely boring and sideways-moving recently. There is a weekly forecast suggesting market correction. I am skeptical, but the future remains to be seen…
Since we earn money each month, it is extremely tempting to increase the investment amount monthly. Probably this should be done until a minimal qualifying investment amount (maybe 50,000 USD or 150,000 USD) is reached. The benefits of flexible amounts are clear: 1. Ability to use new opportunities each month 2. Natural growth of the …
This weekly forecast is a bit strange. Occasionally economical data makes no sense: good news cause sell-offs, sectors loved for safety underperform, low recession chance coincides with bear signals. It seams that occasionally semantic algorithms overtrade [using probability of rate hikes] based on keywords they recognize in the news – this could be a good …
While trend following is good for mid-term investment, fundamental analysis enables some long-term predictions. 1. The power of demographics. Young people generate inflation and growth, aging population is causing deflation and stagnation. By following nations’ demographic it is possible to predict roughly the long term growth trajectory. 2. Diffusion. In healthy economy there is diffusion …
This article shows that US accounts for 52% of total world stocks. With Japan at 7%, UK at 7% and EU at 7% trailing behind. Investing in any non-US market is of higher risk, especially monetary risk, but also growth of developed markets and market manipulation risks come to mind. With highly differentiated monetary politics, …
Continue reading “Is there a good reason to invest worldwide?”
This institute provides a leading index on US economy based on some macro measurement. This article describes how to use the leading weekly index to anticipate US economy movement.
Volatility futures are typically in contango (S&P bull market) with some backwardation periods (S&P bear market). There is a reason to trade long volatility on market peaks when (a) there is no QE in US and (b) when the contango is relatively flat, and inverse volatility on market corrections otherwize. Flat volatility contango is also …